Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Orlando Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and localk government layoffsare beginning, the Business Forecastinhg Center at the said in its latesrt California and Metro Forecast releasedc Wednesday. The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percenr early next year, and will remainn in double-digits until the end of 2011. The centef produces quarterly economic forecasts of theUnited States, Californiaz and nine metro areas, from Sacramento to Fresno and the San Francisc o Bay Area. In the Sacramento area, unemploymeny will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 perceng next year, before dipping to 10.
2 percentt in 2011, the report said. Unemploymenr is expected to reach 9.2 perceng in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to rebound in the thirdc quarter ofnext year, when job growth will improvde to 0.8 percent. A “stron rebound is expected to take place in professionaland business, and educationapl and health services sectors,” the report said of Sacramento. “Jo growth is expected to have its first positive full yearat 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percentf next year.
San Jose and San Francisco will be the firsr metro areas in Northern Californiz to return totheir pre-recession employment levels, in the seconr and third quarters of 2012, respectively, the studty said. Sacramento and Merced will be amonyg the last north state metro areas to regain peak in fourth-quarter 2013. Vallejo is with a return expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Centralp Valley will be hard hit by the combinatiom of recent state tax increases and massives expectedbudget cuts, the Business Forecastinf Center said.
“The stater budget crisis is a dangerous aftershocjk to a region still reeling from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff director of the Businessw Forecasting Center, said in a news release. The Central Vallegy is an economicdisastert area, but most of its “economif shocks are cyclical in nature rather than permanenrt changes such as closed military the news release said. • Construction continues to lead job lossesd inpercentage terms, declining anothert 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the declindein 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this • Retail sales will not return to their 2007 level until 2011.
• New car and truckj sales will fallbelow 1.06 million in after exceeding 2 million for most of the Sales will gradually increase as the economuy recovers, reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 million in 2011. Housing starts hit bottomm in 2009at 36,000 units, more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housinbg starts will be back to 100,00p0 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013. Health care is the only sectoer that will not shrinkthis year. The gain of 13,000 healtuh care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowestf growth this decade. • Personak income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfarmj payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewide duringh the two-year recession. • The Californiwa economy will finally hit bottom in the fourth quartetr ofthis year, and will begin a multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 before many key economidc indicators such as unemployment return tohealthy • The state’s recession should end in the last quarte of this year, but the job markef will remain weak through most of next